# Restaurant outlook forecasts modest purchasing-power growth

> Source: https://qsr.pro/articles/restaurant-association-september-2026-purchasing-power-outlook
> Publisher: QSR Pro


The Association forecasts 0.5% growth in real disposable income for 2026. Its separately released survey describes restaurant use and spending choices.

Published: 2026-09-25T20:56:59.532008+00:00

By QSR Pro Staff

![Restaurant outlook forecasts modest purchasing-power growth](https://gadzwjyojqpwmxtgebnh.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/article-images/editorial-illustrations/20260925-daily-20260922-nra-economic-outlook-d1594204c833.webp)

*AI-generated illustration: QSR.pro. Conceptual artwork.*

The National Restaurant Association forecasts a 0.5% increase in consumers' inflation-adjusted disposable personal income in 2026, pointing to a modest gain in purchasing power in its [September 22 economic outlook](https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/economic-indicators/economic-outlook/).

The projection describes income available after personal taxes, adjusted for prices. It is a full-year forecast, distinct from a prediction of restaurant sales. The Association also forecasts 2.2% growth in real gross domestic product, the broader measure of U.S. economic output.

The outlook also cites its separately released consumer research. In the Association's [September 17 summary of its third-quarter survey](https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/economic-indicators/quarterly-consumer-insights-survey/), 53% of respondents reported dining at a restaurant during the reference week and 50% ordered takeout or delivery. Those activities can overlap.

The Association's [accompanying commentary](https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/affordability-pressures-mount,-but-consumers-continue-to-prioritize-restaurants/) reports that 39% said they spent less at restaurants, including takeout and delivery, than in the second quarter. Another 23% reported spending more, while 38% reported little change.

The survey summary also says 40% used discounts or value promotions more than usual, compared with 35% in the second quarter.

## The latest measured income picture

The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides a monthly view of household income and consumption. Its [August 26 release covering July](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026) estimated that disposable personal income rose 0.5% from June in current dollars and 0.4% after adjusting for prices.

Over the same month, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in current dollars. Inflation-adjusted spending rose less than 0.1%. These are national totals across consumer spending, including goods and services, so they describe a broader market than restaurant purchases. July's saving rate was 3.0%, the share of disposable income left as saving.

BEA's next income and spending release, covering August, is scheduled for September 30 alongside its annual update of the economic accounts.

Category: [Finance & Economics](https://qsr.pro/categories/finance)