Restaurant outlook forecasts modest purchasing-power growth

The National Restaurant Association forecasts a 0.5% increase in consumers' inflation-adjusted disposable personal income in 2026, pointing to a modest gain in purchasing power in its September 22 economic outlook.

The projection describes income available after personal taxes, adjusted for prices. It is a full-year forecast, distinct from a prediction of restaurant sales. The Association also forecasts 2.2% growth in real gross domestic product, the broader measure of U.S. economic output.

The outlook also cites its separately released consumer research. In the Association's September 17 summary of its third-quarter survey, 53% of respondents reported dining at a restaurant during the reference week and 50% ordered takeout or delivery. Those activities can overlap.

The Association's accompanying commentary reports that 39% said they spent less at restaurants, including takeout and delivery, than in the second quarter. Another 23% reported spending more, while 38% reported little change.

The survey summary also says 40% used discounts or value promotions more than usual, compared with 35% in the second quarter.

The latest measured income picture#

The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides a monthly view of household income and consumption. Its August 26 release covering July estimated that disposable personal income rose 0.5% from June in current dollars and 0.4% after adjusting for prices.

Over the same month, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in current dollars. Inflation-adjusted spending rose less than 0.1%. These are national totals across consumer spending, including goods and services, so they describe a broader market than restaurant purchases. July's saving rate was 3.0%, the share of disposable income left as saving.

BEA's next income and spending release, covering August, is scheduled for September 30 alongside its annual update of the economic accounts.