Grain prices rise as U.S. wholesale beef prices ease

International grain prices rose in September. The latest U.S. wholesale beef figures, for August, showed a second consecutive monthly decline.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s October 2 release put its September food-price index at 136.0, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier. The measure tracks international commodity prices, weighted by trade, across cereals, vegetable oils, meat, dairy and sugar.

Cereal prices climbed 5.1% during September. They were 17.2% above September 2025, a larger annual increase than the overall food-price index. Wheat rose 6.3%, which FAO attributed to Black Sea logistics constraints and dry weather in parts of North America ahead of planting. Corn rose 5.6%. FAO cited lower-than-expected U.S. yields, reduced Brazilian export availability and disrupted Black Sea trade. Sugar also increased, while the meat index declined and dairy barely changed.

A smaller U.S. wheat crop#

U.S. crop reporting adds detail on the domestic grain supply. The Agriculture Department’s September 30 release estimated this year’s wheat production at 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from the revised 2025 total.

Both acreage and yield contributed to the smaller harvest. Farmers harvested 31.9 million acres of wheat, 15% less than last year, while the estimated yield fell 10% to 48.1 bushels per acre. Winter wheat accounted for about two-thirds of total production, at 1.02 billion bushels. Its output was down 27%.

The same release showed a larger carryover of corn from the previous crop. Old-crop corn held on September 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from a year earlier. Most was stored off farms: 1.31 billion bushels, compared with 787 million on farms. Both categories increased from September 2025.

That corn count describes grain already in storage at the start of September. The wheat figures describe the 2026 crop’s production. The agency surveyed farms and off-farm storage facilities during the first two weeks of September to compile the stocks estimates.

Beef prices ease at the wholesale level#

Domestic wholesale beef prices fell 3% in August after dropping 4.1% in July, according to USDA’s September Food Price Outlook. Even after those decreases, August prices were 3.1% above their level a year earlier.

The producer-price measures track prices received by domestic producers at different stages of the supply chain. The farm-level cattle series also declined: August prices fell 6.4% from July and were 3.9% below August 2025. That was the first month this year in which cattle prices fell below their year-earlier level.

Wheat was moving the other way in that domestic report. Farm-level wheat prices increased 2.4% in August and were 35.1% above August 2025, extending the recent increases USDA described alongside a projected decline in U.S. wheat output.

More beef in cold storage#

A separate USDA report provides a snapshot of frozen meat held in refrigerated warehouses. Its September 25 Cold Storage report recorded 407.1 million pounds of frozen beef on August 31, up 2% from July and 5% from a year earlier.

Pork followed a different monthly pattern. Frozen holdings totaled 436.3 million pounds, down 1% from July, although they remained 12% above August 2025. Combined frozen red-meat supplies increased 1% for the month and 8% for the year.

Frozen poultry holdings also declined: total supplies were down 1% for the month and 4% from August 2025. Chicken stocks were slightly lower than in July and 5% below a year earlier, while turkey holdings fell 3% during the month and 2% over the year.

The survey covers refrigerated warehouses and qualifying specialized facilities that normally store products for at least 30 days. It excludes space maintained by wholesalers, distributors and chain stores, among other facilities.

The reported holdings include commodities regardless of ownership or origin. Imported and domestically produced food held in qualifying facilities both enter the totals. USDA revises the monthly estimates as late or corrected warehouse reports arrive.

Diesel falls nationally, with regional differences#

The latest Energy Information Administration fuel update put average U.S. on-highway diesel at $6.382 a gallon on September 28. That was 14.7 cents below the previous week, though still $2.628 above a year earlier. The figures include taxes.

The decline followed the preceding week’s increase: the national average was $6.285 on September 14 and $6.529 on September 21. The September 28 reading therefore remained above its level two weeks earlier.

Regional movements varied. Gulf Coast diesel fell 22.2 cents to $5.955 a gallon, while the Rocky Mountain average increased 6.7 cents to $6.407. The Midwest declined 15.4 cents to $6.526. West Coast diesel averaged $7.357, down 9.9 cents for the week.

Those are retail pump prices for highway diesel. EIA publishes national and regional readings weekly. Its next scheduled release is October 6.