Restaurant spending rises as Wendy’s and Starbucks shares rally

U.S. food-service businesses rang up an estimated $92.9 billion in September 2026 sales, 7% more than a year earlier. On October 15, the day those figures arrived, Wendy's and Starbucks shares each gained about 4%.

The spending increase capped a growing quarter. July–September sales were 2.6% higher than in April–June and 6% above the same period a year earlier. Those seasonally adjusted figures cover food services and drinking places nationwide, beyond just fast food, and are not adjusted for inflation. Census report.

What a larger check can do#

At McDonald's, customers' choices helped keep sales growing even as orders fell. The company said a more favorable mix of products contributed to higher average checks in the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. Its U.S. comparable sales rose 0.8%, with check growth more than offsetting lower transaction counts. Those results include established franchised and company-operated restaurants. McDonald's second-quarter results.

Wendy's collects a percentage of its franchisees' sales in royalties. That ties the franchisor's royalty income to what goes through the register. For an owner, food and payroll bills also determine how much of a higher check becomes profit.

Wendy's own U.S. restaurants illustrate the cost side. For the second quarter ended June 28, 2026, the company reported a company-operated restaurant margin of 13.8%, down from 16.2% a year earlier. Wendy's attributed the decline to commodity inflation, higher wage rates and lower traffic. Higher average checks and labor efficiencies partly offset the pressure. Both brought some relief, even though they did not fully close the gap with the previous year.

Restaurant shares join a wider rally#

The stock gains came during a broader move into economically sensitive businesses. In his October 15 commentary, Interactive Brokers economist Jose Torres linked that buying to strong economic data and falling bond yields, alongside investor unease about artificial-intelligence and semiconductor investment.

That account puts the restaurant gains in a wider setting without establishing what drove any individual stock.

Six of the seven restaurant companies below outpaced SPY on October 15. Wendy's and Starbucks led the group; Chipotle finished only slightly higher.

Source: Nasdaq. QSR.pro calculations compare October 15, 2026 regular-session closes with October 14 closes, rounded to one decimal.

September's sales growth was still positive month to month, at 1.1%, after August's 1.4% increase. Annual growth strengthened from 5.8% in August to 7% in September. The quarter ended with more spending, even as the monthly pace eased. Census comparison table.

Census figures are seasonally adjusted dollar sales, not adjusted for inflation, for businesses with paid employees. September is an advance estimate; August is preliminary.